105
FXUS64 KLCH 161804
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1204 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
- BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CREATE INCREASED WILDFIRE INITIATION AND SPREAD RISK SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING TO
NEAR 70 MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID JANUARY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE RESULTING FROM A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
FEW, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY, BUT PRECIP TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF
AN INCH WITH MOST AREAS NOT SEEING ANY RAIN AT ALL.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY DROPPING RH VALUES INTO THE 20-30% RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT MOST SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS FORECAST RH VALUES WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN
ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S BEFORE
DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THERE REMAINS A LOW, BUT NON ZERO PROBABILITY
THAT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COASTLINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
NARROW WINDOW FOR A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. THAT SAID, SHOULD IT OCCUR,
THIS WILL BE A NOVELTY EVENT WITH NO HAZARDOUS ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT ALL ON AREA
ROADWAYS AS ASPHALT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL, THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANYONE WHO MAY BE IMPROPERLY EXPOSED TO
THESE TEMPERATURES FOR LONG DURATIONS. RISKS TO PIPES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE DURATION OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 4 HOURS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE WIND DRIVING APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEARLY OVERHEAD. FOUR PLUS HOURS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
FURTHER SOUTH, ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY
TOUCH FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A
CONCERN FOR PIPES.
JONES
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
QUICKLY MODIFIED BY A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGING
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK OFF INTO THE GULF BY ANOTHER
PASSING FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AROUND 23Z THIS
EVENING. VFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH BKN VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL
FOLLOWING IT'S PASSAGE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE
FROPA AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OF 20-
25 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WHICH WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 3-6
FEET. THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AGAIN PUSH WATER OUT OF THE
AREA LAKES AND BAYS PRODUCING LOW WATER CONDITIONS OF -1 TO -1.5
MLLW DURING THE LOW TIDE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
LOW TIDE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AS ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 20-30% RANGE ELEVATING THE RISK FOR
WILDFIRE INITIALIZATION AND SPREAD. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. SIMILAR MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER WINDS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AND LIFTS UP THE TEXAS
GULF COAST LIFTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 39 55 26 51 / 20 0 0 0
LCH 46 55 32 54 / 30 10 0 0
LFT 45 54 31 52 / 40 10 10 0
BPT 44 57 31 56 / 20 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page