458
FXUS64 KLCH 171120
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
520 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
ALONG IT.
- BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CREATE INCREASED WILDFIRE INITIATION AND SPREAD RISK SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND FALLING AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. A LINE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND THE LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSE THROUGH LOWER ACADIANA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY (SAT) ARE ONLY FORECAST TO GET INTO THE MID 50S
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT CLOUDS TONIGHT, LEADING TO SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA SAVE THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. AT THE MOMENT, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE RIGHT NORTH OF CRITERIA FOR COLD WEATHER
HEADLINE ISSUANCE, HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ADDITIONALLY IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT,
THERE WILL BE THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES. OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS THE CHANCES HAVE DECREASED, WITH NOW ONLY AROUND A 5% CHANCE.
OVER THE DAY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA, EXITING THE AREA THAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING. IT WILL NOT REMAIN FOR LONG AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE LONG TERM KICKS OFF WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT STARTED
MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. BY TUESDAY MORNING,
THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING OFF
TO THE EAST BY THAT EVENING, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE TX/MX GULF
COAST; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY ON ITS FORMATION
AND SUBSEQUENT PROGRESSION INTO THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, MOVING ALONG THE COAST THEN OFF TO THE EAST AS
IT IS SHUNTED AWAY BY ANOTHER FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING.
DESPITE THE FRONTS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN 7 DEGREES
(BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW) CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM. WITH EXCEPTION TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH
AND GUSTY TODAY, BUT DECREASE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OF 20- 25 KNOTS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WHICH WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 3-6 FEET.
THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AGAIN PUSH WATER OUT OF THE AREA
LAKES AND BAYS PRODUCING LOW WATER CONDITIONS OF -1 TO
-1.5 MLLW DURING THE LOW TIDE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LOW WATER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOW TIDE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AS ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 20-30% RANGE ELEVATING THE RISK FOR
WILDFIRE INITIALIZATION AND SPREAD. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. SIMILAR MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER WINDS. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY. THE DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
30-40% RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AND LIFTS UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST LIFTING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 55 26 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 56 32 53 36 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 56 31 51 33 / 10 10 0 0
BPT 58 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05
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