504
FXUS64 KLCH 181833
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1233 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COASTAL MARSHES, AND
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY NIGHT.
- A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
COOL AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS, A CLEAR SKY, AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT,
AND HAVE CUT UNDER THE OPERATIONAL NBM FORECAST BY BLENDING IN SOME
COOLER GUIDANCE THAT VERIFIED WELL LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW, BUT THAT
TREND WILL BE ARRESTED BY A REINFORCING HIGH SINKING INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY. MODERATION WILL RESUME AS ONSHORE FLOW AND WAA
BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
MSTR RETURN WILL ACCELERATE INTO WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE RESPONSE, PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO ANY SURFACE WAVE/LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TX COAST THAT
WOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND HELP FOCUS HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
NEVERTHELESS, AMPLE LIFT AND MSTR ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS WED AND WED NIGHT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEED
RAINFALL, WITH TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA AVERAGING AROUND ONE HALF OF
AN INCH, WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL SE TX/SW LA
PENDING THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SFC FEATURES.
SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THU, BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OFF, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. BASED ON LATEST TIDE PREDICTIONS, EXTENDED THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY TO COVER THE LOW TIDE CYCLE MONDAY MORNING. A MORE
PREVALENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE MONDAY BEFORE A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MOVING UP THE TEXAS
GULF COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS BUILD INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME, MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW 40 PERCENT, TO GO
ALONG WITH ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE DROUGHT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS,
TO BRING ABOUT A FIRE RISK FOR GRASS, MARSH, AND WOOD FIRES. NON
PROFESSIONAL OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 27 57 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 34 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 30 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 34 64 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13
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