052
FXUS64 KLCH 190603
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST POTENTIAL ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS
MAINLY IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL.
- THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC HIGH SURGING TOWARD THE
REGION AND THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BECOMING ACTIVE. STAY UPDATED
AS THE FORECAST IS FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL JUST
REINFORCE THE ALREADY DRY AND COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER LIGHT
FREEZE WITH FROST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR.
A WARM UP WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LIGHT FLOW OFF THE GULF HELPS TO
MODERATE THE AIR MASS.
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN BOTH EAST PAC AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF 1.10 INCHES AND NEARING OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF 1.35 INCHES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
MEANWHILE, MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 100H-50H ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 80 PERCENT.
A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LATE WEDNESDAY OFF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WITH THE LOW STAYING OFFSHORE AND WITH IT THE BEST
INSTABILITY, CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER LOOK TO BE VERY LOW. STILL WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
ON THURSDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT WILL
MOVE THE COASTAL LOW AWAY FROM THE AREA AND END THE RAIN CHANCES
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS KIND OF A
MESS AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN INCONSTANCY AND
A NUMBER OF VARIABLE SOLUTIONS.
BASICALLY AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND SURGE DOWN TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, THE
SOUTHERN JET LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
BRINGING EAST PAC ENERGY AND MOISTURE ACROSS. THE TIMING BETWEEN
THE DISTURBANCES AND THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ULTIMATELY TELL THE TALE.
THE WHISKER PLOTS OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND, BOTH MAXES AND MINS, HAVE BETWEEN A 20F AND 25F
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE. THEREFORE,
DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN RAIN OR MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN.
PROBS HAVE INCREASED SOME FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA,
ACCORDING TO THE NBM, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION (GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH) AROUND 15 PERCENT NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE EARLIER RUN HAD A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR THAT AREA.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS AS THE EARLIEST WOULD BE LATE
SATURDAY FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WENT WITH THE MEAN
OF THE NBM WHISKER PLOTS FOR TEMPERATURES AND KEPT ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LIGHT TO MODEST EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS BUILD INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME, MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT MONDAY,
AND LESS THAN 40 PERCENT ON TUESDAY, TO GO ALONG WITH ABNORMALLY DRY
OR MODERATE DROUGHT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, TO BRING ABOUT A FIRE
RISK FOR GRASS, MARSH, AND WOOD FIRES. NON PROFESSIONAL OUTDOOR
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 27 59 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 34 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 30 61 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 34 65 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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