618
FXUS64 KLCH 200609
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1209 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION PUMPS MOIST AND MILD AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN A HALF INCH
AND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL HELP STEER THE
ACTIVE JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL LOCATED
OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A BROAD ONSHORE REGIME TO TAKE
PLACE LIFTING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL PARTICULARLY
FOR LOWER SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND IN THE 60'S THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER. AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN TX WHILE PHASING WITH WITH
DOWNSTREAM FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY YIELDING WIDE SPREAD
WETTING RAINFALLS RANGING FROM A 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
BY THURSDAY MORNING, LINGERING RAINSHOWERS WILL START TO TRAIL OFF
TO THE NORTH AND EAST, HOWEVER, WEAK ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HAS
THIS FEATURE STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING THE
GULF AIR TO FURTHER INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TOWARD 70 SOUTH
OF HWY 190, WHILE CENLA TRENDS IN THE MID 60'S.
FRIDAY THE PATTERN QUICKLY BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
INCREASED SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EAST OF BAJA. POSITIONING
OF THESE TWO LOCAL JET MAX, CREATES A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS COLD ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS SOUTHEAST. WHILE
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY, CHANCES DO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELING REGARDING TIMING OF COLDER AIR REACHING THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE
40'S. AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 MAY APPROACH 50°F BRIEFLY WHILE HIGHS
ACROSS CENLA KEEP TO THE LOW 40'S. BARRING ANY MAJOR FORECAST SHIFTS
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE A COLD RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AFTER
SUNSET, STRONG CAA ADVECTION CONTINUES WHILE LIGHT PRECIP REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION ZONE SHIFTING SOUTH
FROM THE NORTH PORTION OF LOUISIANA SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. WET SURFACES
GENERALLY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO COOL DUE TO LATENT HEAT. THAT
SAID, THE CONCERN FOR WINTRY WEATHER PEAKS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE FREEZING PRECIP TRENDS TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY
THUS ERODING ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS, SHOULD THERE BE
ANY. LINGERING PRECIP MAY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY,
WHICH AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST RANGE APPEARS TO BE ALL RAIN
INCLUDING CENLA. THUS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN HERE WILL FALL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY MORNING WHERE LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-10 MAY HAVE ENOUGH HOURS BELOW FREEZING TO ACCRUE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
COLD AIR CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD
20'S AND POTENTIALLY UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE WAKING UP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH NORTH WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR HAZARDOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES / WIND CHILLS
MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AGAIN, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT
TO STRESS THAT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF COLD AIR
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, ANY IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER THAT
OCCURS, IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TOWARD CENLA PER THIS CURRENT FORECAST
CYCLE.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNRISE WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT / VARIABLE OR CALM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL LOW THAT
WILL MOVE UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE 35-45% THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS. LATER, WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND BRINGING MINIMUM RH VALUES UP. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 59 42 61 51 / 0 10 70 80
LCH 63 50 68 57 / 0 10 60 60
LFT 63 47 68 55 / 0 0 40 50
BPT 64 52 69 57 / 0 10 70 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY FOR
GMZ430-432.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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