410
FXUS64 KLCH 201906
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
106 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION PUMPS MOIST AND MILD AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN A 0.10 AND 0.75
INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
60S WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SHIFTING EASTWARD, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S
TODAY, MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S BY
THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED TONIGHT, WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION, SUPPORTING INCREASING SHOWER
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ONGOING FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FRONTAL TIMING REMAINS A
KEY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. IF FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATER IN THE DAY, HIGHS
COULD REACH THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S; HOWEVER, EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WOULD LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 50S OR COOLER ACROSS
THE CWA. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS APPROXIMATELY A 10°F SPREAD IN
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THIS UNCERTAINTY CARRIES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A 15 TO 20 DEGREE
SPREAD IN FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA, WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR FREEZING TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN LINGERING
PRECIPITATION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY IF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES MORE QUICKLY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY, AND
COMBINED WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 30S. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY THAT EARLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FURTHER INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUED TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY AND PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 WITH POPS IN THE 80 TO 90 PERCENT
RANGE. SHOULD COLDER TRENDS PERSIST, PORTIONS OF THIS AREA COULD
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS UP TO THAT POINT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WARM NOSE PLACEMENT SUGGEST RAIN AS THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME, THOUGH FREEZING
RAIN REMAINS A CLOSE SECONDARY CONCERN, WITH SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE; HOWEVER, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ON
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TAPERING AS BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRY AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO ARRIVE, MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION, WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
MODERATION ABOVE FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DURATION OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING. WE
ALSO WILL SEE AN SHOWERS BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVER THE
LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL LOW THAT
WILL MOVE UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE 35-45% THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS. LATER, WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND BRINGING MINIMUM RH VALUES UP. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 43 62 52 65 / 10 80 80 50
LCH 51 68 58 71 / 0 50 50 40
LFT 48 68 55 72 / 0 30 40 40
BPT 53 70 57 72 / 0 50 50 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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