652
FXUS64 KLCH 211132
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION PUMPS MOIST AND MILD AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN A 0.10 AND 0.60 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE POSES INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL DRIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. CONCURRENTLY, A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOCALLY,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY AS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION (CAA) REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY
SHIFTS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOCALIZED TROUGH WILL STALL THROUGH THURSDAY, EFFECTIVELY
BLOCKING COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THURSDAY
MORNING AS THEY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. LOW-END CHANCES
REMAIN FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOTABLY, RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD SOME FOR LOWER SETX AND SWLA TOWARD 0.20 TO 0.60 INCHES.
ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH GIVEN THE ROBUST WINTRY SETUP FORECAST
IN THE LONG RANGE. A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SUBTROPICAL JET AS IT PHASES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE MIDWEST AS ARCTIC AIR POOLS INTO THE CONUS. LOCALLY, MILD BUT
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES AREAWIDE WHILE WINDS BACK
NORTHERLY. A HEALTHY SWATH OF COMBINED PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE
WILL FILL THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF A
ROBUST 1050MB HIGH DESCENDING SOUTH FROM THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
REGARDING SIGNIFICANT CAA INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
NEAR DAWN SATURDAY, THE MASSIVE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AMIDST INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. WHILE
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR/MOISTURE OVERLAP IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE FOUR
DAYS OUT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE 25TH-50TH
PERCENTILE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA—INCLUDING SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA (VERNON, RAPIDES, AND AVOYELLES PARISHES)—MAY
FALL BELOW FREEZING AROUND DAWN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA,
THESE LOCATIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.
AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 190 CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WHILE PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY; HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING APPEARS
TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS,
PROVIDED MOISTURE REMAINS CONSISTENT. LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-UPPER 20S
WILL ALLOW SURFACES TO COOL BELOW FREEZING DESPITE THE OFFSET OF
LATENT HEAT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING
MARK SOUTH OF I-10, WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY.
AS PRECIPITATION WANES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, ANY LINGERING
P-TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST). PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
PROLONGED DURATION OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS WILL POSE A THREAT TO PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH
CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY.
HOWEVER, SOME WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEARLY 50
CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY
MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED, LEADING TO
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN. PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH PREDOMINANT IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRATUS AND
FOG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. LATE FRIDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE FRI/EARLY SAT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION, LIGHT RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING
A SOMEWHAT WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH MINRH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 80S. IN ADDITION,
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATE FRIDAY, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER, DRIER AIR
WILL NOT ARRIVE FOR A WHILE LONGER RESULTING IN BITTER COLD BUT
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 52 63 48 / 80 70 40 40
LCH 69 58 70 54 / 50 40 30 10
LFT 68 56 71 54 / 40 50 30 20
BPT 69 56 72 54 / 60 40 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
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