211
FXUS64 KLCH 212034
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
234 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION PUMPS MOIST AND MILD AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN A 0.10 AND 0.60 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE POSES INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS COULD RESULT IN FOG OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY, IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
POPS INCREASING AS DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. POST FRONTAL
OVERRUNNING IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LINGERING PRECIPITATION EVEN
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN; HOWEVER,
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN MESOSCALE DETAILS,
PARTICULARLY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWARD SOLUTION, THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHIFTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AND
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE CWA.
SHOULD COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY, FREEZING RAIN WITH PROLONGED
IMPACTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. EVEN UNDER A WARMER SCENARIO,
SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS REMAIN LIKELY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND
SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SMALL THERMAL CHANGES,
DETERMINISTIC ICE ACCRETION AMOUNTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE ICE ACCRETION ARE
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD TO ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 190, INCREASING TO 50 TO 85 PERCENT
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
20S TO MID 30S, ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. RESULTING WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 10 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE, APPROACHING EXTREME COLD
WATCH CRITERIA. AN UPGRADE REMAINS POSSIBLE PENDING IMPROVED
CONFIDENCE; HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ON THE ORDER OF 7 TO 14 DEGREES, PRECLUDING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO TAPER. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
REFREEZING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EVEN IF
BRIEF AFTERNOON THAWING OCCURS. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SUBFREEZING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY, DESPITE RECENT
WARMING TRENDS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR
FREEZING TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO MEDIUM THAT
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF
THE CWA, AS DETERMINISTIC WIND CHILLS MAY FALL INTO THE 4 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA
AND PRECIPITATION TO END. MODEST DAYTIME WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER INCREASING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, IMPROVED
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MAY SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 10S TO MID 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
WINTER WEATHER, WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE
DURATION OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS COULD RESULT IN FOG OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. LATE FRIDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE FRI/EARLY SAT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION, LIGHT RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING
A SOMEWHAT WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH MINRH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 80S. IN ADDITION,
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATE FRIDAY, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER, DRIER AIR
WILL NOT ARRIVE FOR A WHILE LONGER RESULTING IN BITTER COLD BUT
MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 53 63 49 59 / 80 20 30 40
LCH 58 71 57 70 / 60 10 10 40
LFT 57 71 56 70 / 70 10 20 40
BPT 57 71 56 70 / 40 20 10 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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