116
FXUS64 KLCH 290611
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1211 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT FREEZE WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH FROST AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
- THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL MODERATE SOME ON TODAY ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HOWEVER BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY OVER
THE GULF ON TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MORE
ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG
WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD THE LOCAL REGION WITH CLEAR, COOL, AND
CALM CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHARP COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF CANADA.
A LIGHT FREEZE IS ON TAP FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE CONCERN AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.
THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW
THAT WILL CAUSE A VERY BRIEF WARM UP WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND NOT ABLE TO ADVECT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL POPS EXCEPT A SHOWER OR
TWO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH A COLDER AIRMASS PUSHING IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE GULF. BREEZY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER EAST COAST
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADV A BIT
EARLY FOR EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPS/APPARENT TEMPS LOOK BORDERLINE AT
BEST FOR AN ACTUAL EXTREME COLD WARNING/WATCH EXCEPT IN A ZONE OR
TWO. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR IS JUST EAST OF THE REGION. WHILE
NOT MENTIONED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A FLURRY OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE LOCALLY AS THIS OCCURS. ACCUMULATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE
TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, BUT IT COULD BE A NOVELTY FOR EARLY SATURDAY
FOR A FEW LUCKY AREAS.
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. AGAIN TEMPS AND APPARENT TEMPS ARE JUST
NEAR EXTREME COLD CRITERIA, BUT AREAS ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA MAY
REACH CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE COLD RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE. THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THIS ONE DOESN'T APPEAR AS STRONG.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER AFTER THE FOG
BURNS OFF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VRB THROUGH MORNING AND BECOME ONSHORE AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH LOW SEAS NEAR 1-2 FEET
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION,
POSSIBLE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT NNW AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY, ALLOWING
SEAS TO BUILD INTO THE 4-7 FT RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD
OF STRONG WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING
SEAS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD AND LIKELY APPROACH 8-10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS BY SAT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT INTO
SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING ABOUT A PERIOD OF
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY, WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE
30-40% RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S. CONDITIONS MODERATE QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED BY LATE MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 56 34 46 22 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 61 38 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 60 40 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 63 37 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ180-
201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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