153
FXUS64 KLCH 291732
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL MODERATE SOME ON TODAY ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HOWEVER BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY OVER
THE GULF TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MORE
ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG
WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED
AND MOISTURE INCREASES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
AFTER SEVERAL CHILLY DAYS A WARMER START TO OUR THURSDAY IS ONGOING,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE A FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ALLOWING LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME DUE SOUTH
OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH GETS A PUSH SOUTH BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND A MORE ROBUST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH BY EARLY
TOMORROW AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND AN APPROACHING STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS TIGHT OVERHEAD. ALOFT, THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES ITS TREK SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, DEVELOPING
INTO A ROBUST CUT OFF LOW AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN US
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 20S TO LOW 30S SAT MORNING.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, EVEN BENEATH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, WHILE
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING (~24-
34 DEGREES ON AVERAGE) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO SETTLE OVERHEAD, ALLOWING
WINDS TO RELAX AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SET UP
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 2AM SAT THROUGH 10AM
SUN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
ABOUT A COOL AND SUNNY END TO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS THE
REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WE START THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW, MOISTURE RETURN TO BEGIN, AND
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS DOES BRING US A
COOL DOWN FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WE WON'T SEE TEMPERATURES
NEARLY AS COLD AS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET. TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TOMORROW PRIOR TO SUNRISE. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME, EXCEPT AT AEX WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY TURN WINDS TO THE NW AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LONG DURATION
OF WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO STEADILY BUILD INTO THE 4-10
FT RANGE TOMORROW THROUGH SAT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL GO INTO AFFECT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, A LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL LAKES/BAYS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SAT INTO SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BRINGING ABOUT A PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
FRIDAY, WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE 25-40% RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND,
WHILE TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. CONDITIONS
MODERATE QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED BY LATE MON. SEASONAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 56 34 46 22 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 61 38 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 60 40 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 63 37 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ435-436-455-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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