195
FXUS64 KLCH 311132
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS
AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
- AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED
AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LOOKING AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS THIS SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
07/RUA
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF WHILE ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LA. HIGH
PRESSURE IS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
ALOFT, A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORT WAVE
ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE ISN'T MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES ARE NOTED OVER
ARKANSANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
TODAY THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE NOTED IN
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER AR SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LARGER TROUGH. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON AT
MANY LOCATIONS.
THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT CREATING NEAR CALM CONDITONS BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY. A VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVERHEAD
CREATING THE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A HARD FREEZE AREA WIDE.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
START A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND, HOWEVER A LIGHT FREEZE IS
STILL FORECAST EARLY MONDAY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR
LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONLY A MODEST
COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THIS PACIFIC AIR
MASS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FEET
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THIS SECONDARY FRONT BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
BY 31/18Z AND REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25KT.
THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A COLDER REINFORCING ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TODAY. THIS ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A PERIOD OF DISTURBED
WEATHER BRINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
BROUGHT ON BY MUCH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. PORTIONS OF LOWER
ACADIANA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS
DURING DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY.
RH MINIMUMS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S TODAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY, SO WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 36 18 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 41 22 49 36 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 37 20 47 32 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 43 22 51 36 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-
201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ435-436-
450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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