535
FXUS64 KLCH 311722
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED
AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSING BY THURSDAY AM. NO HARD FREEZE OR WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
IT'S BEEN A COLD START TO THE MORNING! AREA OBS FELL INTO THE 20S
AND 30S AREA WIDE THIS MORNING, AND WITH WIND GUSTS, IT FELT AND
STILL FEELS MUCH COOLER. TEMPS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO TOP OUT IN THE
30S AND 40S. AGAIN, WITH A BREEZE, THAT BRINGS REAL FEEL TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESSIVELY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BRINGING WINDS DOWN QUICKLY JUST AHEAD OF SUNDOWN. AS
SUCH, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 4 PM TODAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HELPING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, TONIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE COLDEST, TEMPERATURE-WISE, DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S
FORECAST, SO THERE IS A DEPARTURE OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE
AND CONSEQUENTIALLY CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS LATE
IN THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WOULD SHUTTER THE MAXIMIZATION OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL A
FEW HOURS SHY OF SUNRISE. SO THERE WILL BE QUITE A FEW HOURS OF
CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS. THUS, THE PREVIOUSLY COLD FORECAST WAS
BLENDED IN WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF
CONSISTENCY FOR MESSAGING SAKE. A HARD FREEZE IS STILL ANTICIPATED
AND THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ESTABLISHING
RETURN FLOW AND BRINGING THE START OF A WARMING TREND TO THE
REGION.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONGTERM FORECAST IS REGARDING THE SPEED OF
NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER SYSTEM. GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED AND NOW RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DEPARTURE LATE TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONCE AGAIN,
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LACKING FOR THIS EVENT AND ITS QUICK
TURNAROUND WILL LIKELY LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH. SO, POPS ARE LIKELY
RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH FROM TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY, BUT NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. STILL, SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS OF NOW, NO
SEVERE OR FLOOD RISK IS ANTICIPATED.
THE TROF AXIS FULLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING IN A PACIFICALLY COOLED AIRMASS
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FEET
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THIS SECONDARY FRONT BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
BY 31/18Z AND REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25KT.
THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THESE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH
LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW
WATER CONCERNS TO COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.
FLOW SHIFTS TO ONSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SET TO ARRIVE TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
POTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS MOVED DOWN INTO THE REGION ON STRONG
NORTH WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, PARTICULARLY OVER
COASTAL REGIONS AND INTO LOWER ACADIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THIS FRONT. RH MINIMUMS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S
TODAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
THERE IS A DANGER FOR FIRES TO QUICKLY SPREAD DUE TO DRY FUEL
CONDITIONS TODAY; LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 18 47 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 22 49 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 20 47 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 22 51 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ435-436-
450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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