269
FXUS64 KLCH 010601
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED
AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSING BY THURSDAY AM. NO HARD FREEZE OR WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY,
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY, WITH WIND
SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIRMASS WILL
HAVE SUFFICIENTLY MODIFIED, PRECLUDING ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED, SUGGESTING PRIMARILY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY,
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME REESTABLISH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FRIDAY AND RISING TO NEAR, THEN ABOVE,
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM. SOME UPPER LEVEL
DECKS MAY STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT TIMES; OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LINGERING LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IS EXPECTED
TO BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW WATER CONCERNS TO COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FLOW SHIFTS TO ONSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SET TO ARRIVE TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
POTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS MOVED DOWN INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTH
WINDS. RH MINIMUMS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY, SO WINDS WILL NOT
BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 48 29 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 48 36 64 52 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 47 32 64 49 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 51 36 66 53 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-
201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY FOR
GMZ430-432.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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