313
FXUS64 KLCH 011745
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSING BY THURSDAY AM. NO HARD FREEZE OR WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER, AROUND NORMAL TEMPS, BUT FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL RETURN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
COLD CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AREA-WIDE THIS MORNING AS EVERYONE
FELL INTO EITHER THE UPPER TEENS OR LOW 20S FOR MOST HOURS OF THE
NIGHT. NOW THAT HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CUT OFF, EXPECT THE START OF AIRMASS MODERATION
TODAY WITH HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH LIGHT
WINDS TODAY, SHOULD MAKE FOR A FAIRLY BEAUTIFUL DAY!
MONDAY WILL SEE THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE JUMP AS HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST, SETTING UP RETURN FLOW AND REALLY ALLOWING TEMPS TO JUMP
INTO THE MID 60S. TRULY, IT'LL FEEL LIKE A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY AS
MOISTURE HASN'T MOVED IN YET. THAT'S THE DAY TO REALLY GET OUT AND
ABOUT!
THAT IS SAID BECAUSE THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE
RATHER GROSS. RETURN FLOW CRANKS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH
MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SFC COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TAMPING
UPWARDS INTO TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS BROAD SCALE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORTTERM. THERE
IS NO SEVERE RISK ON TUESDAY EITHER AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
NEARLY NONEXISTENT. JUST SHOWERY RAINFALL FOR THOSE AREAS THAT GET
OVERSPREAD BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
BOUNDARY LINGERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES
OVERHEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING WITH IT A COLD PACIFIC
AIRMASS. THIS WILL EXACERBATE RAINFALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS AS THE
UPPER TROF PHASES WITH LOW LEVEL TROF. HOWEVER, FLOODING AND
SEVERE ARE STILL NOT A RISK. WIDESPREAD, SHOWERY RAINFALL WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER TYPE
AND EXPECTATION.
UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD BY LATE WEDNESDAY, USHERING THE
COOLER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD AND LINGERING RAINFALL OUT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE RAINMASS-COOLED WITH THURSDAY COOLED BY THE PACIFIC FRONT.
BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND, RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW THE
AIRMASS TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO
ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE AREA FROM
THE WEST, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.
THE ONLY CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE AT KBPT, WHERE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT FOR NOW
HAVE ADDED MVFR VISIBILITY THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 16Z. ALL OTHER SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO AREA WATERS FOR
TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ONLY MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW DUE TO LOW
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PICK UP A BIT MONDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TO FOLLOW AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
DRY, COLD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE. STARTING MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST WITH A
FETCH OF WARM, MOIST AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 48 29 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 48 36 64 51 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 47 31 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 51 35 66 53 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...14/64
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