923
FXUS64 KLCH 021129
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSING BY THURSDAY AM. NO HARD FREEZE OR WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER, AROUND NORMAL TEMPS, BUT FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL RETURN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF CAMERON, CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA, EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BRIEF HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS,
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, FAVORING
PRIMARILY RAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. CURRENT
RAINFALL FORECASTS RANGE FROM APPROXIMATELY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
RETURN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE GULF, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FRIDAY AND INCREASING
TO NEAR, THEN ABOVE, CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT
02/14Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH JUST A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
02/18Z.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO AREA WATERS
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ONLY MARINE CONCERN WILL BE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW DUE TO LOW
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PICK UP A BIT MONDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TO FOLLOW AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
STARTING MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST WITH A FETCH OF
WARM, MOIST AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 46 66 40 / 0 0 80 60
LCH 63 51 67 48 / 0 0 50 80
LFT 63 47 69 46 / 0 0 30 90
BPT 65 52 68 47 / 0 0 60 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...07
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