540
FXUS64 KLCH 031834
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THIS INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ARE
EXPECTED.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM AROUND BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS, LA, SOUTH AR, AND MS.
THROUGH THIS EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SE
TX AND SW LA EVEN WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND A SCATTERING OF
SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AREAL AVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL BE FROM A
HALF AN INCH TO AROUND 1 INCH, HOWEVER LOCALIZED 2" IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORM.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT EARLY TOMORROW WITH A PACIFIC AIR MASS
SPILLING IN AND RAIN CHANCES ENDING. A LIGHT FREEZE MAY OCCUR
TOMORROW NIGHT IN CEN LA AND THE WHOLE AREA WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO NORMS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW WILL VEER SW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY THAT WILL
START A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL START FRIDAY AND WILL
LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
CLIMO NORMS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING IN TANDEM. SEA FOG COULD BECOME
AN ISSUE BY TUESDAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO AROUND 60.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS INCREASE AFTER
22Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LIKELY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z,
BRINGING A WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CONDITIONS DECREASING TO IFR.
WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY NOT BE
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY, BUT THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS LIKELY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN
MORE WESTERLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
64/SILAS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SPREADING TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY ADVECTING COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE LOWEST RH'S OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH MINIMUM VALUES FALLING TO 30-40%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 40 56 31 55 / 80 0 0 0
LCH 48 60 36 58 / 80 0 0 0
LFT 47 57 33 55 / 90 10 0 0
BPT 48 62 37 60 / 80 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...66
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