045
FXUS64 KLCH 281115
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
-WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW OFFSHORE, AND DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 50S AREA-WIDE. AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE, BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AGAIN. THIS WILL KEEP OUR CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID WITH
LATE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL BRING MORE HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. AROUND MID-WEEK, A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PULL MOISTURE
NORTH AND PROVIDE BROAD INSTABILITY, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS OF OVERCAST SKIES AND RAINFALL. BY MID-WEEK, PWATS
WILL START TO INCREASE INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE, AND BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEY WILL BE PUSHING NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT ONGOING DROUGHT, THE RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME, BUT
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AREAS OF FOG ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ARA AND POSSIBLE LFT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE,
FOG HAS LARGELY FAILED TO BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT THANKS TO A BIT
OF DRIER AIR. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE MERELY A WIND FORECAST, AS
ONGOING ENE/E WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SE TO S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, WINDS GO CALM, AND WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE RETURN TODAY
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE NEAR MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 80 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 79 55 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 80 55 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 79 57 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
450-452.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...17
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