704
FXUS64 KLCH 010607
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UNSETTLED WET PATTERN TRENDING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
WX MAP CURRENTLY HAS ARE AREA OF WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE SECOUS. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ORGANIZING OVER
OKLAHOMA AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
LOCALLY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH THE STRONGER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAW UPON
GULF MOISTURE BY MONDAY AND ADVECT MORE AMBIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID, DRY LAYERS BETWEEN 1-3KM ALOFT WILL LIKELY
CAP BUILDING CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE NEAR STATIONARY TROUGH
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE ABUTTING THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON
TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT HAZARDOUS WINDS, BUT FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND
20-25MPH ARE LIKELY. WHILE RAINFALL IS NIL IN THE SHORT TERM, ONE
BIT OF GOOD NEWS RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER IS THAT DIURNAL RH MINS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AMID ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS ALLOWING GUSTS TO
COME DOWN A BIT. THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY TROUGH QUICKLY BEGINS
TO EVOLVE / RETROGRADE WEST OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WHILE THAT REGION
IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION, LOCALLY, THE COLUMN BEGINS TO
MOISTEN WITH IMPROVING LOW LEVEL PROFILES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THE
FORECAST PATTERN BECOMES A BIT UNSETTLED WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL.
THE KNOWN IS THAT GULF MOISTURE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES OF RAINFALL DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN CAVEAT IS THAT THE ACTIVE
JET AND ASSOCIATED PERTURBATIONS MEANDER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
OVER THE SW US. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF PULLING DOWN THE
AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREFORE POPS DO INCREASE NOTABLY BY SATURDAY FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD CHANCES. WORTH NOTING, THE CURRENT CPC
OUTLOOK KEEPS THE FORECAST ARE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE 6-10 DAY WINDOW SUGGESTING OPPORTUNITIES OF A
MUCH NEED RAINFALL MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF
MARCH.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MIXED CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS. THE PROBABILITY
OF SEEING DENSE FOG IN PARTS OF CENLA ARE LOW, HENCE THE DROP TO
ONLY 4SM FOR NOW. REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
AREAS OF SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS, HOWEVER, FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE
EAST LIMITING CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG OFFSHORE. A MORE ESTABLISHED
REGIME OF ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEARSHORE MARINE FOG. A LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SETUP TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS/GUSTS.
THEN PATTERN RELAXES WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY, BUT CONTINUES TO FACILITATE
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED, HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 81 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 78 57 76 60 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 80 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 78 58 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ055-073-
074-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ515-516-
615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...87
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