637
FXUS64 KLCH 020607
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE MID-WEEK.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UNSETTLED WET PATTERN TRENDING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRY REGIME ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE ARKLATEX. WITH THE ACTIVE JET
STREAK DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY, RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S AREAWIDE.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO
REINFORCE THE STATIONARY TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SECONUS AND
THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN A
HEALTHY ONSHORE FLOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
(COASTAL WEATHER AREA), LIMITING BROAD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY UTILIZING MODEST LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. DESPITE
THE INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS, RISING DIURNAL HUMIDITY AND SLIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD MODEST RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT
SUBSIDENCE, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT EVEN LOCALIZED AIRMASS-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH
INTERIOR LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW TO MID-80S.
A NOTABLE TREND IN RECENT FORECAST CYCLES IS THE "DELAY" OF THE
STATIONARY TROUGH'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST.
THIS STALL IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE SECONUS RIDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED
RATHER THAN SHIFTING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS, THE
NBM APPROACH MAINTAINS SCATTERED, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WEEKEND IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD,
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THE
EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND FAR WEST LA MAY TEMPO TO
MVFR / IFR VIS DUE TO RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, DENSE
FOG APPEARS LESS FAVORABLE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT OR
CALM WITH S / SE COMPONENTS. WINDS WILL VEER SE TO S THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
BETWEEN 2-4KFT AGL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS LOW AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODEST
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 80 56 82 63 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 76 59 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 78 60 81 65 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 78 61 80 64 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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