057
FXUS64 KLCH 031122
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
522 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE MID-WEEK
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED WET
PATTERN TRENDING INTO THIS WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
QUIET BUT HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS NEARLY MATCHING AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM STX INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. AREAS OF PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED, WHILE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. BETWEEN CLOUD COVER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT, VIEWING
CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT’S LUNAR ECLIPSE WILL BE LIMITED IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, AREAS WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED MAY AVOID DENSE FOG FORMATION AND ALLOW FOR
PARTIAL VIEWING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
FLORIDA LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ADVANCES
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE WEAKENING FRONT, SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETREATING NORTHWARD. A
NON ZERO CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM, WITH BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING
APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN AT SELECT LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME BUT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY RETREAT.
REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A MORE DEFINED FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION,
AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CUTOFF LOW MAY EVENTUALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
14-15Z HOUR, WITH ALL SITES RETURNING TO VFR THEREAFTER THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AMID OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. TONIGHT,
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO HELP MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT POCKETS OF LOW VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 62 84 63 / 0 0 20 0
LCH 79 65 81 65 / 0 0 10 0
LFT 81 65 81 65 / 0 0 30 0
BPT 80 65 81 65 / 10 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17
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