748
FXUS64 KLCH 040602
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEK.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED WET
PATTERN TRENDING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
QUIET BUT HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE A TOUCH WARMER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
NEARLY MATCHING AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. PATCHY TO DENSE MARINE FOG
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA, PARTICULARLY INTO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WHILE AN INLAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS NOT
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS MOMENT, IT IS ADVISED TO TRAVEL WITH CAUTION.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A DISTURBANCE ADVANCES
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE WEAKENING FRONT, SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM, WITH BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING
APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN AT SELECT LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BUT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
RETREAT/BREAKDOWN. REGARDLESS, THE BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION,
AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CUTOFF LOW SHALL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
ONCE AGAIN, A RATHER INTERESTING CLOUD DECK IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ROBUST, LOW CLOUDS AT AND BELOW 500 FT HAVE MOVED
INLAND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A DRY SLOT
OF FEW CLOUDS IS STILL PRESENT FROM ACADIANA UP NORTH ALONG THE I49
CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN WITH AT LEAST LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE 500 FT RANGE AND PATCHY FOG TO PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
NEAR AEX. AT COASTAL TERMINALS, A MUCH MESSIER SCENARIO IS
UNFOLDING. WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP, BUT HAVE DONE LITTLE TO QUELL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE DENSE FOG. THIS THICK BANK IS ADVECTING INLAND
AND HAS ALREADY TANKED VIS AT BPT AND LCH. ALTHOUGH VIS AT THESE
TERMINALS IS BOUNCING CURRENTLY, THEY SHOULD SETTLE IN AROUND 1/2 SM
IN THE NEXT HOURS, SO THIS WILL PREVAIL. IT'LL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
FOR VIS TO FALL NEAR LFT AND ARA JUST DUE TO THEIR ADJACENCY TO THE
FLOW OFF THE GULF AND SITUATION FURTHER INLAND. GUIDANCE DOES BRING
THESE TERMINALS DOWN TO AROUND 1/2 SM BUT NOT UNTIL ROUGHLY 09Z.
LIKELY VIS WILL TANK RAPIDLY PREVIOUS TO SUNRISE AS IS OFTEN SEEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN. THIS CONTINUED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE AROUND ALL DAY. AFTERNOON SPEEDS MAY
GUST IN THE 17 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BUT WILL COME DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH
SUNDOWN. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DEGRADING BETWEEN 06Z AND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET. OVERALL, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG EACH NIGHT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IS ONGOING ONCE AGAIN AND IS FORECAST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND. A HUMID ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GOING
INTO MID NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ELEVATED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 63 84 63 / 0 0 20 0
LCH 79 65 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 81 66 81 65 / 0 0 30 0
BPT 80 65 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...11
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