344
FXUS64 KLCH 041802
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED WET
PATTERN TRENDING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
OUR SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST CAUSING ONSHORE WINDS. ALOFT,
RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH HEIGHTS AT 500 MB
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PUSHING
OUR TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES, FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW, WE WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THE LAYER BECOMES UNCOUPLED AND
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS,
COOLER SSTS, WEAK WINDS, AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE
EVENING MARINE FOG REMAINS A CONCERN. WHILE CURRENT ADVISORIES
ARE ONLY FOR THE MARINE AREAS IT IS RECOMMENDED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION EACH DURING YOUR MORNING COMMUTES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO
OUR NORTH, ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A FOCAL AXIS
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WPC HAS PLACED THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
FLASH FLOODING. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE TABLES AND ECMWF TAILS,
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA DUE
TO THE BEST FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF OUR CWA. STILL OUR PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES BY SATURDAY, WELL INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN EVEN SOUTH OF THE MARGINAL RISK. IF YOU
HAVE ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS OR PLANS MAKE SURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE FORECAST.
AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE STALLED FRONT WILL START TO WASH
OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE BREAK
IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STATING AROUND MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK APART ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING AN OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES, SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET, LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL START TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
PERSISTENT SOUTHERN FLOW OF WARM AIR ALONG WITH COOLER SST
CONTINUES TO CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DENSE MARINE FOG. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS TO OUR
NORTH. WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN EACH MORNING FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SOUTHERN WINDS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGH WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 50%. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 63 83 64 / 10 0 10 0
LCH 80 65 81 66 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 80 65 82 67 / 40 10 10 0
BPT 81 65 80 66 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page