055
FXUS64 KLCH 042314
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
514 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED WET
PATTERN TRENDING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
OUR SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST CAUSING ONSHORE WINDS. ALOFT,
RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH HEIGHTS AT 500 MB
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PUSHING
OUR TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES, FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW, WE WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE EACH NIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER IS REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THE LAYER BECOMES UNCOUPLED AND
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS,
COOLER SSTS, WEAK WINDS, AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE
EVENING MARINE FOG REMAINS A CONCERN. WHILE CURRENT ADVISORIES
ARE ONLY FOR THE MARINE AREAS IT IS RECOMMENDED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION EACH DURING YOUR MORNING COMMUTES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO
OUR NORTH, ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A FOCAL AXIS
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WPC HAS PLACED THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
FLASH FLOODING. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE TABLES AND ECMWF TAILS,
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA DUE
TO THE BEST FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF OUR CWA. STILL OUR PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES BY SATURDAY, WELL INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN EVEN SOUTH OF THE MARGINAL RISK. IF YOU
HAVE ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS OR PLANS MAKE SURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE FORECAST.
AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE STALLED FRONT WILL START TO WASH
OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE BREAK
IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STATING AROUND MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
STARTING TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING BREAKING DOWN AND MOISTURE
SURGING IN AS SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THESE ARE DIURNAL IN
NATURE AND ARE RATHER WEAK, BUT COULD MIX DOWN SOME VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS NEAR AEX, LFT AND ARA THRU SUNDOWN.
AFTER SUNDOWN, EXPECT A DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS AS A MIX OF
ADVECTION MARINE FOG AND RADIATION FOG ALL DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL
TERMINALS. WIND WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR MORE OF THE
RADIATIONAL TYPE FOG TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE TIMELINE FOR FALLING
VIS WAS MOVED UP CONSIDERING A LOT OF EVENING TRAFFIC COULD SEE
IMPACTFUL FOG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT / 06Z. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HASN'T
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT COASTAL AREAS MAY NEED ONE IN THE
COMING HOURS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN. THIS CONTINUED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE AROUND ALL DAY. AFTERNOON SPEEDS MAY
GUST IN THE 17 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BUT WILL COME DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH
SUNDOWN. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT LOCATION AND COVERAGE ARE
UNSURE AT THIS TIME.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 63 83 64 / 10 0 10 0
LCH 80 65 81 66 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 80 65 82 67 / 40 10 10 0
BPT 81 65 80 66 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11
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