787
FXUS64 KLCH 051125
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IN MARINE WATERS MAY MOVE INLAND TO COASTAL AREAS. A
MARINE AND INLAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE A FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR, AND
POSSIBLE NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THU AND FRI AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE ARKLATEX ON
SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING TROF TO
THE WEST HAS CONTINUED A FETCH OF WARM, MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF.
THERE ARE STILL TWO DISTINCT FEATURES AT PLAY THIS HOUR: HIGH
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF AND DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS BACKED OFF TODAY, ALLOWING FOR SFC
WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE SOLID SLUG
OF MARINE FOG TO MOVE INLAND TO COASTAL AREAS BY SUNRISE, SINCE THE
BANK WON'T BE SHREDDED BY WINDS LIKE SEEN IN RECENT MORNINGS. EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO REMAIN MOSTLY CONTAINED TO AREAS BETWEEN I-10 AND THE
COASTLINE AS UPPER CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM TX CONVECTION SHOULD HELP
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT MUCH FURTHER NORTH.
COASTAL INLAND AREAS UNDER A DFY UNTIL 10 AM, MARINE UNTIL 12 PM.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER TROFS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ERODING THE STANDING RIDGE SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOESN'T REFLECT MUCH FOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER
TX/LA/MS, SO ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MAKE A STAB AT POPPING
UP.
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF DROPS OUT OF THE GREATER ROCKIES ON FRIDAY
WITH A VERY WIDESPREAD BERTH OF INCREASED SURFACE WINDS SET TO
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE. ROUGHLY 30 TO 50 KNOT NEAR-SFC JET MAX
STRETCHING FROM IOWA TO THE SOUTH GULF AND FROM COLORADO TO
TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AM. HOWEVER, RIDGE REMAINS RESOLUTE
AND SO MOST FORCING IS DEFLECTED RAPIDLY NORTH. THE WEAKENING
REMAINS OF A SFC JET TRY TO MOVE OVERTOP THE SABINE BASIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH RIDGE STANDING TO THE EAST AND ONLY 30 KNOTS
NEAR-SFC OVERHEAD, UPPER ENTRANCE REGION STILL OFF THE WEST, WE'LL
BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA, WHERE THE
"BEST" FORCING WILL OVERLAP WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO THE
RIDGE. POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH MARGINAL CAPE SURGING UP THE COASTLINE. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
COULD PAUSE ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS FOR A SHORT TIME, SO PLAN A
CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THOSE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. PWATS TOP OUT
IN THE 1.20 TO 1.40 INCH RANGE AT PEAK OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION,
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE, SO THOSE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
MAY HAVE BIG DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP RAINFALL MOVING, SO
NOT ANTICIPATING STALLED DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLOODING.
BIG TIME UPPER MECHANICS TAKE OVER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPPER
TROF FURTHER BECOMES DEEPLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENUS FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO NEW ENGLAND. A WIDE CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS SET
TO DEVELOP BENEATH THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONG PARALLEL FLOW. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY AND RAINFALL BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO SE TX AND
CENLA BY SATURDAY AM. DEEP SLUG OF DAILY MAX PWATS ARRIVES, FURTHER
INCREASING RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE SE TX
COUNTIES. THEN, JUST LIKE A HOTWHEEL CAR HITTING THE TRACK MOTOR
BEFORE THE BIG LOOP, THE NEXT POLAR JET MAX IS ZIPPED QUICKLY
BETWEEN THE ALEUTIAN LOW OVER AK AND STRONG NORTH PACIFIC HIGH RIGHT
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. INSTEAD OF A COOL ORANGE LOOP-DE-LOOP, THE JET
MAX RIPS RIGHT ACROSS THE PAC NW, HITTING UPPER TROF AND CAUSING THE
FLOW TO BUCKLE. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW BREAKS OFF INTO THE BAJA, WHILE
THE REMAINING TROF GETS FORCED EAST.
AND SO, WITH THESE TWO FEATURES JUTTING SOUTH AND EAST, THE GULF
RIDGE IS FORCED TO BACK OFF. DEPARTING JET ALONG THE TROF NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY PULLS THE TROF AWAY, AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
IN RESPONSE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FINALLY REACH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SETTLING IN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS PULLED AWAY.
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER 90TH PERCENTILE COMBINED WITH SHARP GRADIENT
OF PARALLEL FLOW AND MARGINALLY DECENT CAPE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW EFFICIENT RAINFALL TO TAKE OVER. CURRENTLY,
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A DISTANT THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING, MOSTLY WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
HOWEVER, WE ARE SO DRY AND WATER TABLES SO LOW, IT WILL BE AN
ISOLATED THREAT REALIZING LATER IN THE EVENT IF AT ALL.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS
BAJA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FINALLY PULLED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
US. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING ABOUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
FOG HAS LARGELY FAILED TO MATERIALIZED AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE
HOWEVER, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT LCH/BPT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM IS LOW CEILINGS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 65 86 67 / 10 0 20 30
LCH 81 66 82 69 / 0 0 30 20
LFT 82 67 84 70 / 10 0 20 20
BPT 80 66 82 68 / 0 0 30 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ073-074-
152-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17
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