624
FXUS64 KLCH 052345
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IN MARINE WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY MOVE
INLAND TO COASTAL AREAS.
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE A FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR, AND
POSSIBLE NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS
A FRONT MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
ARKLATEX ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING TODAY, CHARACTERIZED BY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE REGION,
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATER THIS EVENING.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH, SLOWING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE, ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT GUIDANCE
PLACES PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK ERO AND A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK SWO, WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING FRONT, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO MONDAY.
ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW STATES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST INTO CENTRAL TX FROM THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT WITH PWATS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG VERSUS LOW CEILINGS. AT THE
MOMENT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THAT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAVORED OVER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA WITH MVFR FOR KAEX. THESE CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KBPT/KLCH BETWEEN 06/02-06Z AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 06/06Z.
CEILINGS WILL INCREASE TO MVFR AFTER 06/15Z WITH VFR BY 06/18Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
WARM, MOIST AIR AS AND WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL OVER COOL NEARSHORE
WATERS, RESULTING IN THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF MARINE FOG. FRIDAY
STARTS A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSH A FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF. FROM SATURDAY THRU THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS IN RESPONSE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SURGING INTO THE REGION ON STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BY TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WILL BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FROM FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 85 67 84 / 0 20 30 90
LCH 66 81 68 82 / 0 20 20 60
LFT 67 83 70 83 / 0 20 10 60
BPT 66 81 68 81 / 0 30 20 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...07
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