493
FXUS64 KLCH 060546
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IN MARINE WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY MOVE
INLAND TO COASTAL AREAS.
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE A FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR, AND
POSSIBLE NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS
A FRONT MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
ARKLATEX ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING TODAY, CHARACTERIZED BY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH THE REGION,
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT SUGGESTS THAT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATER THIS EVENING.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH, SLOWING NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE, ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT GUIDANCE
PLACES PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK ERO AND A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK SWO, WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING FRONT, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO MONDAY.
ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW STATES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST INTO CENTRAL TX FROM THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT WITH PWATS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS AND WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
TERMINALS, HOWEVER, BPT AND LCH COULD STILL BE SUBJECT TO MARINE FOG
ADVECTING INLAND. INCLUDED MENTIONS OF LOWERED VIS TO AROUND 1 SM AT
ITS LOWEST THRU SUNRISE.
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS STATES AND DIURNAL PROCESSES UP AGAINST
THE STUBBORN RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL PLACE A DAYTIME LOW LEVEL JET
OVERTOP THE ARKLATEX. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED OFF THE SURFACE, WITH ONLY GUSTS 19 TO 25 KNOTS MAKING TO
THE SURFACE DURING DAYTIME HOURS. THE LOWEST 10 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
FROM THE SAME SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST VECTOR, SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OFF THE SFC, THERE SHOULD NOT BE A
STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ANY EXISTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD BE
FROM THE SE TO ESE AT THE SURFACE WITH A TURN TO TOWARDS THE S.
LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 85 67 85 / 0 30 40 80
LCH 66 81 69 81 / 0 20 30 60
LFT 67 84 70 83 / 0 20 10 60
BPT 66 81 68 81 / 0 30 20 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-450.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...11
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