576
FXUS64 KLCH 060646
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1246 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BOTH OVER COASTAL
WATERS AND INLAND AREAS. DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT SOME
PATCHES MAY HAVE SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE A FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR, AND
POSSIBLE NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
- EXTENSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE ARKLATEX ON SAT AND SUN
BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING WEATHER SAT AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. RISK DECREASES SUN WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) FOR
FLOODING RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TONIGHT AND LAST IS THE ELEVATED WIND SPEED OWED
TO BY A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAD BETWEEN HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THIS FLOW IS LARGELY KEEPING MARINE AND
INLAND FOG FROM DEVELOPING SO FAR, SAVE FOR A FEW PATCHES SPREADING
NE FROM THE FOG BANK NEAR GALVESTON BAY. GUIDANCE WAS HINTING A BIT
AT THIS SCENARIO, SO AN MFY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE 0 - 20 NM WATERS
AND INTO SABINE LAKE. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY SOLID THAT FOG WON'T
REACH DENSE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
LITTLE THINKING HAS CHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT'S THINKING AS FAR AS
FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY'S FORECAST, SO THAT PORTION FROM
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WILL BE NOTED HERE: POSITIVELY TILTED TROF DROPS
OUT OF THE GREATER ROCKIES ON FRIDAY WITH A VERY WIDESPREAD BERTH OF
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS SET TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE. ROUGHLY 30 TO 50
KNOT NEAR-SFC JET MAX STRETCHING FROM IOWA TO THE SOUTH GULF AND
FROM COLORADO TO TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AM. HOWEVER, RIDGE
REMAINS RESOLUTE AND SO MOST FORCING IS DEFLECTED RAPIDLY NORTH. THE
WEAKENING REMAINS OF A SFC JET TRY TO MOVE OVERTOP THE SABINE BASIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH RIDGE STANDING TO THE EAST AND ONLY 30
KNOTS NEAR-SFC OVERHEAD, AND UPPER ENTRANCE REGION STILL OFF THE
WEST, WE'LL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER SE TX AND EXTREME SW LA, WHERE THE
"BEST" FORCING WILL OVERLAP WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO THE
RIDGE. POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH MARGINAL CAPE SURGING UP THE COASTLINE. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
COULD PAUSE ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS FOR A SHORT TIME, SO PLAN A
CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THOSE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. PWATS TOP OUT
IN THE 1.20 TO 1.40 INCH RANGE AT PEAK OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION,
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE, SO THOSE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
MAY HAVE BIG DOWNPOURS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP RAINFALL MOVING, SO
NOT ANTICIPATING STALLED DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLOODING.
BIG TIME UPPER MECHANICS TAKE OVER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPPER
TROF FURTHER BECOMES DEEPLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENUS FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO NEW ENGLAND. A WIDE CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS SET
TO DEVELOP BENEATH THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONG PARALLEL FLOW. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY AND RAINFALL BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO SE TX AND
CENLA BY SATURDAY AM. DEEP SLUG OF DAILY MAX PWATS ARRIVES, FURTHER
INCREASING RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE SE TX
COUNTIES. POLAR JET MAX ZIPS QUICKLY INTO THE PACIFIC NW SATURDAY
HITTING UPPER TROF AND BUCKLING FLOW ON THE WRN TROF. AN UPPER
CUTOFF LOW BREAKS OFF INTO THE BAJA, WHILE THE REMAINING TROF GETS
FORCED EAST.
AND SO, WITH THESE TWO FEATURES JUTTING SOUTH AND EAST, THE GULF
RIDGE IS FORCED TO BACK OFF. DEPARTING JET ALONG THE TROF NOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY PULLS THE TROF AWAY, AND THE SFC BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
IN RESPONSE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FINALLY REACH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SETTLING IN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS PULLED AWAY.
THE AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISKS FOR BOTH SEVERE AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. THE FLOODING RISK IS STRAIGHT
FORWARD CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE INFLUX OVERLAPPING WITH CONSISTENT
PARALLEL FLOW CAUSING RAINFALL TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD. SEE MORE BELOW.
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER 90TH PERCENTILE COMBINED WITH SHARP GRADIENT
OF PARALLEL FLOW AND MARGINALLY DECENT CAPE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW EFFICIENT RAINFALL TO TAKE OVER. CURRENTLY,
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY. THERE WILL BE DECENT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING,
MOSTLY WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER,
WE ARE SO DRY AND WATER TABLES SO LOW, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
THE SEVERE RISK IS A BIT MORE TRICKY... THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT TO DRIVE LIFT OVER THE ESTABLISHED
WARM SECTOR DURING DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CARRYING AWAY UPPER TROF ALREADY EJECTED
OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, THERE GOES THE SURFACE FORCING NEEDED
TO REALLY KEEP AN ORGANIZED RISK IN PLACE. ALL OTHER SHEAR-RELATED
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN MARGINAL DURING THE PEAK THERMAL
PERIOD. THIS LIMITS BOTH SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THIS
EVENT. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DRY TX PLATEAU DOES PLACE A
DRY LAYER JUST IN THE RIGHT ATMOS. LAYER TO HELP WITH THE GENERATION
OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ALL LAYER FCST LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 6.3 TO 6.8
C/KM RANGE WHICH IS RARE TO SEE HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO MOST
LIKELY PLAN FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A CHANGEOVER TO MORE EMBEDDED STRONG CELLS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
A SINGLE-SEVERE-HAZARD ENVIRONMENT SUCH AS THIS CAN EASILY MORPH
INTO A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IF THE SETUP IS JUST RIGHT. SO, PLEASE
MONITOR WEATHER TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE MOVE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS AND WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
TERMINALS, HOWEVER, BPT AND LCH COULD STILL BE SUBJECT TO MARINE FOG
ADVECTING INLAND. INCLUDED MENTIONS OF LOWERED VIS TO AROUND 1 SM AT
ITS LOWEST THRU SUNRISE.
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS STATES AND DIURNAL PROCESSES UP AGAINST
THE STUBBORN RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL PLACE A DAYTIME LOW LEVEL JET
OVERTOP THE ARKLATEX. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED OFF THE SURFACE, WITH ONLY GUSTS 19 TO 25 KNOTS MAKING TO
THE SURFACE DURING DAYTIME HOURS. THE LOWEST 10 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
FROM THE SAME SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST VECTOR, SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OFF THE SFC, THERE SHOULD NOT BE A
STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ANY EXISTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD BE
FROM THE SE TO ESE AT THE SURFACE WITH A TURN TO TOWARDS THE S.
LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE CENUS AND
RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS AND WILL KEEP ONSHORE WINDS ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS LARGELY LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MARINE
FOG FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, HOWEVER A BANK SPANNING FROM GALVESTON
BAY NORTHWARD HAS MOVED INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP THE CHANNEL
OF SABINE PASS, SO A FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
TODAY STARTS A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES PUSH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF
THIS WEEKEND. FROM SATURDAY THRU THE START OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS INCREASING ONSHORE
WINDS IN RESPONSE.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS MOVING
EAST AND INCREASING MOISTURE SURGES UP THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL
BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 85 67 85 65 / 30 40 80 60
LCH 81 69 81 67 / 20 30 60 60
LFT 84 70 83 68 / 20 10 60 60
BPT 81 68 81 67 / 30 20 60 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-450.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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