967
FXUS64 KLCH 062003
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
203 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE A FETCH OF WARM MOIST AIR, AND
POSSIBLE NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
- EXTENSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE ARKLATEX ON SAT AND SUN
BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING WEATHER SAT AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. RISK DECREASES SUN WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) FOR
FLOODING RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS IN THE 80S AND
BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING. ASIDE FROM WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION, GRADUALLY ERODING
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS,
THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL,
THOUGH TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS
PROMPTED A MARGINAL RISK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR
THAT DAY.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER FLOW BY MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN OUR AREA BEFORE THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CIGS.
ELEVATED AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ONGOING AND
ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER WE COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY
TAPERING TONIGHT BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE
THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF MENTIONING,
THERE COULD BE SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE
APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE CENUS
AND RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS AND WILL KEEP ONSHORE WINDS ELEVATED.
TODAY STARTS A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES PUSH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTH
GULF THIS WEEKEND. FROM SATURDAY THRU THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS INCREASING
ONSHORE WINDS IN RESPONSE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS MOVING
EAST AND INCREASING MOISTURE SURGES UP THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL
BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 84 64 75 / 30 80 80 80
LCH 68 81 66 76 / 20 60 80 80
LFT 71 82 68 79 / 20 60 70 80
BPT 68 81 66 79 / 20 70 80 80
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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