460
FXUS64 KLCH 231729
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A WARM GULF AIR MASS
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH
SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING DAILY RECORDS.
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN, AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST. EVEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER ARIZONA, NAEFS PERCENTILES STILL HAVE THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IN THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE. OUR 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STAY
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO
LATE-SPRING TO EARLY-SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND
WHILE NO HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED, IT IS STILL A
GOOD IDEA TO STAY HYDRATED AND HAVE WAYS TO COOL OFF THIS WEEK.
THIS BULGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT OR
NEAR ZERO.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY BELOW
AN INVERSION, AS WE HAVE DRY NORTH FLOW ALOFT. THIS TRAPPED
MOISTURE, ALONG WITH CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES, WILL LEAD TO IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG, WHICH WILL BE PATCHY TO DENSE ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE
FRONT WASHING OUT BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO HAVE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT.
AFTER TUESDAY, OUR WEATHER WILL BASICALLY BE A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A WEAK "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR TO GO ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE, A FOG POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 24/07Z WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT PAST KAEX THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THERE.
ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER
24/14Z.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW (5 TO 15 KNOTS). WAVES REMAIN BELOW FOUR
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO FUELS
DRYING OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES WILL HAVE LARGE SWINGS, WITH 100% HUMIDITY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT, BUT AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 40%.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTH, BUT ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO
THE SOUTH. KBDI VALUES ARE CONTINUING TO RISE AND CURRENTLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 300 AND 350 ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RAIN CHANCES
NON-EXISTENT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN, AND THE KBDI VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. IF YOU NEED TO BURN, MAKE SURE TO TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 53 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 83 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 83 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 85 62 82 61 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ201-261-
262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
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