315
FXUS64 KLCH 101740
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR A FEW (20% POP) SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
-TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY ON BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
OVERALL, THE WEATHER REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER RISK ON SATURDAY AS
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S WITH WINDS ABOVE 10
MPH. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, FIRES THAT DO IGNITE
COULD SPREAD QUICKLY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE WITH OUR
500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE, CAUSING OUR WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AS
THEY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
EACH DAY. ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES ARE BASICALLY ZERO, WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB BUT DRY
ABOVE A PERSISTENT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER 80S FARTHER
NORTH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, WE WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH
CONDITIONS FEELING LIKE EARLY SUMMER. SPEAKING OF SUMMER, CENTRAL
LOUISIANA HAS AROUND A 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS BREAK INTO
THE 90S THIS WEEK. THIS IS ABOUT A MONTH EARLIER THAN USUAL, BUT
WE SHOULD STAY 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW RECORD TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POPUP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST TIME FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 19Z TO 02Z. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR, BUT AFTER SUNSET, SKIES WILL START
TO CLEAR OUT. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, BUT AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE WITH THE FALLING
WIND SPEEDS, WITH HEIGHTS BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND DROPPING BELOW
5 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND ELEVATED WINDS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA FOR SATURDAY.
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, EVEN “MARGINAL” CONDITIONS
CAN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 40% AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE REGION, AND FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
CURRENT KBDI READINGS ARE AROUND 400 AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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