773
FXUS64 KLCH 291748
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1248 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
- THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND AREAS NORTH OF I-10 HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
- THE REGION HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN AGAIN
FRIDAY.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY WITHIN THE RAIN COOLED
AIR. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS,
NORTH LA, AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHBOUND BEFORE GRADUALLY STALLING ALONG THE COAST EARLY TOMORROW.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS
REACHING TO AROUND 2" WHICH IS AROUND THE MAX OBSERVED FOR THE DATE.
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK, HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
WEAKENING CAP ARE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. A LOW END TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS FRIDAY. THE
WEAK LOW WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE
SOUPY AIR MASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
1.5-2" RANGE WHICH IS AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
APRIL. HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS ARE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES, HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
AROUND 6" OVER THE 3 DAYS. HIGHER TOTALS ARE FORECAST FROM
INTERIOR SE TX THROUGH CEN LA WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST. THE EVENT MAY PUT A DENT IN THE DROUGHT WITH RAINFALL
DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR ROUGHLY RANGING FROM 4 TO 8".
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT IN DURING FRIDAY WITH COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST SUNDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OVER THE REGION. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO PREVAILING IN RESPONSE TO DISTURBED
WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF STRONGER
STORM CELLS NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR TO AEX DURING THESE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM COMING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
CLUSTERS. OTHERWISE, MAJORITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL LIKELY START
CREEPING INTO CENLA FROM THE NORTH IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED WHEN THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH NEAR AEX WITH AN
EXPECTED DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNDOWN. IF SHOWERS/STORMS
MAINTAIN INTENSITY, THERE COULD BE SIMILAR STORM IMPACTS TO LFT, ARA
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST TO LCH LATE TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL CLEAR AFTER 06Z, FOR THE MOST PART, WITH ONLY
SHOWERY RAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND ANY MAIN CLUSTERS. LOW CIGS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MKC
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST. A FRONTAL LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE LOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY. A MODERATE FLOW
WILL VEER EAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
SCA WILL BE NEEDED LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. FORECAST
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE 1.5 TO 4.5" HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
MORE THAN 6" THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...11
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