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FXUS64 KLCH 012344
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE
REGION.
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
HARDIN COUNTY TO ST. LANDRY PARISH THROUGH 4 AM SATURDAY. LOWER
ACADIANA HAVE NOW BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.
- AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH MAY RECEIVE 2 TO 6 INCHES OR HIGHER
BETWEEN RAINFALL FROM THE LAST DAYS TO TONIGHT.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS BEHIND AN ACTIVE JET
FEATURE SITUATED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS FORCING
HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE GENERALLY CONTAINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE A BETTER STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
LOCATED.
TO THE WEST BEHIND THE DOMINANT COMPLEX, STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE OVERRUNNING DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL.
UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A STORM WITH SMALL HAIL, WILL ALL BE ON
THE DOCKET FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WASHING OUT REMAINING SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL USHER THIS AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WHICH MAY BRING THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY
DURING DAYTIME HOURS.
THERE IS SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
INCREASING LARGELY ON NEXT WEDNESDAY.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A SLOWLY ERODING STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 07Z WITHIN A DEEP SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 2SM WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE
RAIN SHIELD. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING FROM IFR TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE RAIN
SHIELD. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE GULF COAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS. A
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ON
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
RAPIDLY.
WINDS DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE IN
THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ROUGHLY TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEARING THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
BETWEEN YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL AND TODAY.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN STARTING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY, AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT
SUNDAY. WINDS RESUME THEIR ONSHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-143-
152-153-243.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ033-044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ180-201-259>262.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ450-
470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ452-455-472-
475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...66
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