371
FXUS64 KLCH 021116
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
- COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON BREEZY WINDS
TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
- A BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A BROKEN SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING EDGE
BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO
AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UNSEASONABLY
COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THIS MORNING WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY MORNING. RECORD LOWS AREN'T LIKELY TO
BE THREATENED EXCEPT AT ARA (DAILY RECORD LOW IS 50) WHICH HAS A
SHORTER PERIOD OF RECORD, BUT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10+ DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TURNING WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND BEGINNING A BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST QPF
FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN
FRIDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SCATTERED CLOUD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. N/NNE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TODAY, RELAXING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH UNTIL 7
AM THIS MORNING WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA. STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 4-8 FEET.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
OFFSHORE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
BREEZY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
THAT WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35-45% EACH AFTERNOON FROM TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED MONDAY INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE OCCURRED LATE THIS WEEK AS
WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MID WEEK WILL IMPROVE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
432-435-436.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455-
472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...17
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