869
FXUS64 KLCH 021837
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
137 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE TX / LA GULF
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL, EXPECTED CALM WINDS,
AND RELATIVELY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES- WIDELY RANGING IN THE
LOW 50S, AREAS OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAWN. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL SHIFT ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY MORNING AND BROADEN EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
ALLOWING LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WHILE
THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING TOWARD THE LOW 80S MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO FEEL PLEASANT WITH
CONDITIONS EXCELLENT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN EARLY MAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INCREASES TUESDAY AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TEES UP EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. DESPITE SOME
LINGERING RIDGING REMAINING OVERHEAD AS THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE
CELL ABSORBS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, CLOUD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE HUMIDITY. CURRENTLY CHANCES OF
RAINFALL STAY BELOW 10% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ORGANIZES INTO TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THAT REGION INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC AND BLENDED GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE
A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH. THOUGH THIS LESSENS THE FAVORABILITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVING THE DEEP LAYER FLOW HAVING PARALLEL
COMPONENTS WITH THE SURFACE, I DO HAVE TO CAUTION THERE MAY BE A
LOW END RISK FOR A FEW STORMS IF THE UPSTREAM FORCING MAIN STRONG
ACROSS THE LOWER TX/LA AREA. REGARDLESS, MODERATE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE PRESENT IN WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST. PRESENTLY,
GUIDANCE SUGGEST CITIES ACROSS WELL INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TX AND
CENTRAL LA HAVE THE GREATEST FAVORABILITY SEEING RAINFALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE COAST. THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTAINED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S HEAD OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS/GUST WILL EASE TONIGHT BECOMING CALM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF PATCHY BR ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AMONG COMMON NUISANCE LOCATIONS AND DISSIPATE BY THROUGH
SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AND ABATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN BACK ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATER,
WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AGAIN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35-45% DURING THE AFTERNOONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED MONDAY
NIGHT INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE OCCURRED LATE THIS WEEK AS
WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING MID WEEK WILL
IMPROVE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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