605
FXUS64 KLCH 032322
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY.
- A BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY, ALBEIT A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BROADEN EASTWARD INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW INTO TUESDAY. NATURALLY, WARMER TEMPERATURES TRENDING INTO THE
LOW/MID 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
TROUGH QUICKLY ACQUIRES A POSITIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. UPSTREAM TROUGHING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THUS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LOCALLY.
BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING SHIFTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TX. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC GUSTS 20-25 MPH. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DO INCREASE. BASED ON LATEST BLENDED AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS A LARGE SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CHANCES OF
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN STEADY ACROSS THE REGION PAST FOUR FORECAST
CYCLES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR CITIES NORTH OF HWY 190 WHICH
HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL POPS LATE IN THE DAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NON-ZERO, THOUGH THIS RISK WOULD PRIMARILY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN
LINGERING SUBSIDENCE, WARM SSTS, AND A DECENT SFC-850MB FETCH OFF
THE GULF, THERE IS SOME EXPECTATION OF A LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION TO PERSIST BETWEEN 800-700MB DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD HELP INHIBIT SEVERE WEATHER.
OVERNIGHT, CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AM HOURS OF THURSDAY. INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT VEERS WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EXPECTED.
FRIDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE SECONUS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND, BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
PATTERN DOES BECOME UNSETTLED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A FEW GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW AS THE NEXT WAVE ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHWEST US.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6-12 KNOTS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND
HIGH CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR STREAM ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME AND PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER SE
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE, BUT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. WORTH NOTING, LINGERING RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
UNTIL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND ALONG WITH MINRH RANGING 55-65% TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...66
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