804
FXUS64 KLCH 051728
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A COLD FRONT. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL AND FORECAST
QUESTIONS REMAIN.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN GULF WHILE LOW PRESSURE
IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS CAUSING ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN FLOW HAS LED TO ROBUST WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH THE
SURGE IN MOISTURE, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OR AN ALL-TIME HIGH WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES AROUND 1.9
INCHES. TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE, THE DAILY AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS AROUND 1.09 INCHES WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS AT
1.65 INCHES. WPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) FOR FLASH FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHER CRITERIA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
WITH CAPE VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS. THE MAIN HANG-UP FOR TOMORROW'S STORMS WILL
BE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS A CAP FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS CAP IS MAINLY DUE TO THE MARINE
LAYER. CAMS SO FAR SHOW THE CAP HOLDING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL, THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDITIONALLY SEVERE WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FROM THE
SPC IN PLACE.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE ON THURSDAY AND THEN STALL IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME NORTH WINDS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY WARM UP
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS
TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF FORECAST AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL GO IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. A FRONT
WILL STALL OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY LEADING TO A NORTHERN WIND SHIFT AND
THE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
STRONG SOUTHERN WINDS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGH WITH MINRH VALUES
ONLY DROPPING AROUND 70% TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY CAUSING A NORTHERN WIND SHIFT
AND A SLIGHT DROP IN DEW POINTS. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW, BUT THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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