166
FXUS64 KLCH 252345
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR VERMILION, LAFAYETTE, ST.
MARTIN, IBERIA, AND ST. MARY PARISHES UNTIL THIS EVENING AT 7
PM.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WET END TO THE WORK WEEK.
- OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE FULL FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR THE
COASTLINE THIS MORNING. UNDER WEAK TO NO FLOW, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL FUNNELS.
OTHERWISE, UPPER LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED TO BE CROSSING THE REGION
ALONG THE LA/TX STATE LINE THIS AM, LIKELY RESULTING IN THE
CONVECTION SEEN SO FAR, AND DEFINITELY TO RESULT IN THE RAINFALL
ONGOING JUST EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
INDUCED BY THIS UPPER LOW JUST ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA
COASTLINE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
THUS, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY THE LAST 2 DAYS, THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS AREA WILL RIDE UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT WHEN IT IS
ALLOWED TO DROP.
ANOTHER WAVE OF UPPER WEAKNESSES ARE THEN SET TO CROSS THE REGION
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, WEAKNESSES
CROSSING THE REGION WILL LIKELY GENERATE WAVES OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERY RAINFALL. SOME PERIODS COULD SEE WAVES OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN TANDEM WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO RECENT
STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED. HOWEVER, THE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED FROM NOW TO THE END OF THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
IMPACTFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A NEW WATCH. THIS DISCUSSION WILL TAKE
PLACE TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING OR EVENING PACKAGE.
IN THE MEANTIME, TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DRY WEATHER WHILE IT'S
PRESENT. BUT IF YOU HEAR THUNDER TODAY OR IN THE COMING DAYS, GO
INDOORS AS THESE STORMS CAN AND HAVE PACKED VERY INTENSE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND A TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02Z.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY AFTER 08Z. FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS WHERE THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED AND SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WITH IMPACTS MOST LIKELY BEING FELT AT LFT AND
ARA IN THE FORM OF VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A QUICK
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT BPT, LCH AND AEX, BUT
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SPORADIC.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SETTLED
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ONSHORE AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO LITTLE
TO NO FORCING NEAR THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SETTLED
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK. DAILY
MINIMUM RH VALUES 60 TO 80 PERCENT CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-
152>154-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...66
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