431
FXUS64 KLCH 221846
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
146 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREA WIDE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 111 F.
- HEAT STRESS LEVELS HAVE INCREASED TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SATURDAY; THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
STRESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE LOW AND SPOTTY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VERY WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL FILL INTO SUNDAY BECOMING SLACK AROUND STANDARD ATMOSPHERIC
PRESSURE ~ 1013MB. 22ND/18Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES A RATHER DRY
LOWER TROPOSPHERE BETWEEN THE SFC - 800MB. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
DOES CARRY SOME LATE AFTERNOON POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SEABREEZE
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS
WOULD APPEAR TO REMAIN PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE AND ISOLATED AT BEST.
THAT IS A LARGE CHANGE FROM FRIDAY EVENING WHERE MEASURED
INSTABILITY (CAPE) WAS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH IN THE 22ND/00Z SOUNDING
AT 6699 J/KG*K AND SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS ACROSS ACADIANA
YESTERDAY.
WITH THE FORECAST TRENDING MAINLY DRY, SANS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM, OUR MAIN FOCUS
WILL TREND TOWARD HOT TEMPERATURES AND HEAT RELATED IMPACTS /
ILLNESSES. UPPER 90'S TO LOW 100'S WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE
CASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL BE MIXING DOWN
ALOFT, WINDS DO TURN BACK OUT ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO
INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AHEAD. THAT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
FIGHT AGAINST MIXING TO KEEP DEWPOINTS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD, EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI,
WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE CENTRAL/EAST GULF COAST
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. STRONGER SURFACE RIDGING
BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST OVER EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING
DEEPENS SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE
WEAK FORCING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, BLENDED GUIDANCE ISN'T TOO
EXCITED TO ACCOUNT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, LOCALLY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGS THE JET FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 90S, BUT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL DO INCREASE THURSDAY ONWARD AS A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS SOUTH TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING
A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID, LATE AFTERNOON OFFERS A CONDITIONAL CHANCE
OF TS BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY INTO 23RD/AM.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
SEAS WILL RANGE OCCASIONALLY UP TO 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ACADIANA RECEIVED A
HEALTHY DOSE OF RAINFALL, MUCH OF THE AREA HAS REMAIN LARGELY DRY
ACROSS FAR WEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NO APPRECIABLE /
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AHEAD, CURRENTLY. GIVEN THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST,
KBDI VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLIMB. AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES
WILL RANGE 35-45% THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
AGGRESSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR IS A LACK OF WIND, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 10 KTS. REGARDLESS, CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED AND OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. MULTIPLE
PARISHES AND COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN EFFECT. PLEASE CONSULT
YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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