324
FXUS64 KLCH 070631
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
131 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS
UPPER HIGH MEANDERS NEAR BUT NOT OVER THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY. MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 108-110.
- DAILY CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
A CLOUD DECK IS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM STORMS IN MS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED BREEZE OVER
THE PBL WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
BY SUNRISE, BUT DENSE VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
RIDGING EXPANDING OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE HIGH IS SET TO
MEANDER NORTH OF LOUISIANA TODAY, WITH A WANING HOLD OF THE
PATTERN. THE DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS, PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND AFTERNOON STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 TO
15 MILES OR FURTHER FROM STORMS. PREPARE TO MOVE PLANS INDOORS
WHEN STORMS DEVELOP. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 108 TO 110F AND
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM.
AN INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF FROM EAST TO WEST
ON TUESDAY. THE WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RATHER BUSY CONVECTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES IN CHECK.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MS THIS AFTERNOON HAS SENT A SCATTERED
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL LA TONIGHT.
ALSO TO NOTE, OBS AROUND THE NORTHWEST GULF ARE LARGELY READING
CALM WINDS BUT THERE ARE POCKETS OF 3 TO 4 KNOTS INTERSPERSED.
THESE TWO CONDITIONS, THE CEILINGS AND WINDS, SHOULD LIMIT JUST
HOW MUCH FOG MAY DEVELOP AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING
POCKETS OF GROUND FOG WITH NON-DENSE VIS, BUT PERHAPS NO AREAS OF
FG SUCH AS HOW SATURDAY MORNING DEVELOPED. NO PREVAILING BR AT
THIS TIME; EXPECT THE LOWEST VIS TO MANIFEST IN THE TYPICAL 10 TO
12Z TIME FRAME.
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WITH SUNRISE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE MORNING BEFORE TURNING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WITH THE SEABREEZE.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
LOW ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE PERIOD AS
WEAK, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST INLAND. A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST TO WEST
OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL BRING ABOUT DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE REGION BEFORE IT MAKES ITS
NORTHWARD JOG LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
COVERAGE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BACKING AWAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE STARTS MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. DAILY CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL RANGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11
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