150
FXUS64 KLCH 282250
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
550 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED EARLY THIS
WEEK CAUSING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING MID THIS WEEK AS
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE IN OUR NEAR-TERM
FORECAST AS RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND LIMIT SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OVERNIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO REASSERT ITSELF IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AND OUR STREAK
OF COOLER AND DRIER DAYS WILL END AS DEW POINTS RISE BACK INTO THE
MID-70S, THEN THE UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, A CUTOFF LOW WILL
DIVE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. AS THIS LOW
MOVES SOUTH, THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL BE
PULLED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THEN THE GULF COAST. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, OUR AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE WITH THE MEAN PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES, WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE GETTING NEAR 2.5 INCHES. TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT ANYONE WITH PLANS THURSDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST
GOING FORWARD. A FURTHER COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
TIMING OR EXTENT OF THE FRONT, OTHER THAN HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY
LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE WEEK BEING THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FINALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. DENSE CLOUD COVER,
HEAVY RAIN, AND WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S ALONG THE COAST AND THE UPPER 60S FARTHER INLAND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TO THE FAR WEST, HURRICANE POLO IS MOVING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO. IT'S BEING INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO FEATURES TOGETHER ARE SENDING
PRECEEDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, CAUSING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS HERE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF.
VFR, CALM CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
STARTING LATER TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OFF AND WEATHER
PATTERN WILL SEE RESPONSE FROM INTERACTIONS BETWEEN POLO AND UPPER
LOW. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS THE RETURN OF SOME LOW
END RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE IMPACTS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE STARTING TONIGHT AND REMAIN ONSHORE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTH OF US AROUND MIDWEEK, INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION,
THE ONSHORE FLOW IS ALIGNING WITH HIGHER-THAN-USUAL TIDES, WHICH
COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EXPECTED STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...11
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