637
FXUS64 KLCH 291723
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED EARLY THIS
WEEK CAUSING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
PROLOGUE... PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS, POLO IS MOVING
OVERTOP THE BAJA PENINSULA. ALREADY FEELING INFLUENCE FROM UPPER
SHORTWAVE, POLO HAS LOST MOST OF ITS STRUCTURE AND IT'S OPENING UP
INTO A TROF. THIS FEATURE IS THEN STILL SET TO SWING UP INTO THE
LOWER PLAINS STATES WHERE IT WILL SPIN OUT BENEATH UPPER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE COMING DAYS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED AS SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
THIS FETCH WILL CREATE FOR RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE COMING
DAYS, BEFORE THE ULTIMATE INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEATHER FEATURES MOVE IN.
PRECEDING RIDGE IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND
IT WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. ONLY FURTHER
COMPRESSION WILL TIGHTEN ITS GRASP ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN, HALTING
MOST RAIN SHOWERS FROM SQUEEZING IN OVER OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS MARKEDLY LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE BREAKS APART INTO THURSDAY, FINALLY OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL US TO
TAKE OVER. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY TO
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
11
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FOR
BPT WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE WINDS AT LCH, ARA, AND
LFT WILL BE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WINDS AT AEX WILL REMAIN MUCH
LIGHTER AT AROUND 5KT AND BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BECOME VARIABLE AT ARA AND LFT. FOG
APPEARS POSSIBLE AT AEX A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, QUICKLY
DISSIPATING FOLLOWING SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
ARA AND LFT COULD SEE SOME FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE, HOWEVER WIND
SPEEDS COULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION SO IT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND ESTABLISH THEMSELVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR AEX, LFT, AND ARA.
BN/56
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO IS MOVING INLAND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CARRY THIS FEATURE INTO THE LOWER PLAINS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ON A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTH PLAINS DISTURBANCE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL WATERS. UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH US WILL SEND SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER WATERS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL
RESTORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
ITS RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE COMING DAYS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY,
STOPPING RAIN SHOWERS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM
REACHING THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...56
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page