814
FXUS64 KLUB 170020
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND GENERALLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE COLD FRONT'S IMPACT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY. LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN
THIS MOIST FLOW. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
GENERATE SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT ASSISTING IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
BASE OF A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVERHEAD. FORECAST
WINDS WERE INCREASED TOWARDS HIGHER MOS NUMBERS FOR THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING PERIOD GIVEN THE PROGGED RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY PARTICULARLY COLD AIR UPSTREAM. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MODEST COOLDOWN ON FRIDAY BEHIND YET
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS BETTER-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ESTABLISHES TO OUR WEST, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL NEAR ZERO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KLBB, KPVW, KCDS TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OF NOTE, THOUGH, THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS
WELL TO SOUTH AND EAST (GREATER THAN 50 NM) OF KLBB AND KCDS
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...02
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