785
FXUS64 KLUB 181100
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
500 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
EARLY-MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD. TO THE
WEST, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY; AND NOW THAT THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PASSING OVER THE CWA, CONFLUENT
FLOW IS ADVECTING OVER THE NORTHERN TX PH. THIS IS EVIDENT AS THE
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD, WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY ADVECTING IN BEHIND AS PER
RECENT WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY. SATURATION OF THE LOWER-BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS, BUT THIS STRATUS DECK WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. NVA/SUBSIDENT AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA,
WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE TENDENCIES AVERAGING 3-4 MB/3 HR PER
RECENT WEST TEXAS MESONET DATA. METARS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS ANALYZE A 1034 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE, AND THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL, THEREFORE, REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE LATE-MORNING HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH
TOWARDS 18Z AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE ROTATES NEAR THE KS/OK
STATE LINE. THE MAGNITUDE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, IN ADDITION TO THE
DEPTH OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, WILL KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS SHALLOW
THIS AFTERNOON; AND HIGHS WERE NUDGED A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM THE
NBM DESPITE FULL INSOLATION. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE NM/TX STATE LINE DUE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS QUICK TRANSITION TO
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
EXPECT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXCEPT FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
WILL BE IN THE 50S AFTER THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES OR WIND. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR PREVAILS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE LATE-MORNING HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN VEER SOUTHWARD BY THE EVENING.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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