028
FXUS64 KLUB 182014
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
214 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD LATER IN THE
DAY.
- A "COOL" FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S BEFORE WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 60S.
- DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY, 60 TO NEAR 70 DEGREE WEATHER REMAINS
POSSIBLE HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE (RELATIVELY) COOL SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO AN EARLY MORNING
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF 1 PM CST, WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO VEER
AND RANGE FROM OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WILL HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AND WILL HELP WARM
TOMORROW'S HIGHS INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO
OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND NOON TOMORROW AND BE SOUTH OF THE FA BY
THE EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT TO USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS HEADING INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED MUCH FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE SITTING
OVER BAJA CALI WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOLLOWING THE RECENT TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY AS WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID-60S. BY SUNDAY, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
GIVE WAY TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND LOW-END BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS. WARM DOWNSLOPING SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70S, ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST MONDAY, A
WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE UPPER PATTERN SOLUTION MONDAY AND
ONWARD, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING COOLER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY (<5% CHANCE) FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT. AS CHRISTMAS DAY APPROACHES NEXT WEDNESDAY, MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUE, BUT SO FAR THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO REMAIN MILD AND PLEASANT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH BRINGS YET ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...51
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