191  
FXUS64 KLUB 190806  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
206 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WARM WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE  
REGION TODAY.  
 
- A "COOL" FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.  
 
- DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN REMAINS INTACT  
OVER THE NORTHERN LATITUDES WHERE A WELL-DEFINED, POSITIVELY-TILTED,  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO AMPLIFY  
FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS IT DIGS INTO THE RUST  
BELT, WHILE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS  
ECLIPSE THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A  
TROUGH WAS ANCHORED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MESCALERO ESCARPMENT WHICH  
HAS MAINTAINED THE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. FARTHER NORTH, THE PRIMARY,  
SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR,  
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING JET STREAKS WILL MAINTAIN  
CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW, WHICH HAS BEEN OBJECTIVELY  
ANALYZED AT 1020 MB IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH THE CENTER  
LOCATED BETWEEN LAA-LHX. THIS LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO  
THE TX PH BY THE LATE-MORNING HOURS, WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH  
TRANSITIONS INTO A MESO-BETA-SCALE COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH POST-FROPA, WITH THE  
FRONT CLEARING THE CWA PRIOR TO SUNSET. VERTICAL MIXING HEIGHTS WILL  
REMAIN SHALLOW VIA THE PERSISTENT ADVECTION OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT  
AND THE DEPTH OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM TO ALIGN WITH  
THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE, BUT WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE  
WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN  
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL  
RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE A FEW CIRRUS STREAKS  
ADVECTING OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY AS DIABATIC COOLING ACCELERATES THE  
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT (ALBEIT  
WEAKENING). LOW TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED FROM THE NBM AS WELL  
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF  
THE CAPROCK WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS  
AS THE 1030 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.  
 
SINCAVAGE  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL IN THE 50S  
FOLLOWING THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE  
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FROPA WILL PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF  
THE CONUS AS SLIGHT RIDGING FORMS TO THE WEST BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY SHIFTING WINDS  
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUNNY  
SKIES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE 60S FOR SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GIVE WAY TO  
LEE CYCLOGENESIS SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST, A  
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES  
WILL SLIGHTLY COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUT  
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING  
PLAINS COULD REACH THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY. BY MID NEXT WEEK MODEL  
GUIDANCE SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUT SO FAR THE  
TRENDS FOR A DRY AND MILD FORECAST REMAINS BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK  
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS  
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...09  
LONG TERM....10  
AVIATION...30  
 
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