206
FXUS64 KLUB 191720
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY.
- A "COOL" FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN REMAINS INTACT
OVER THE NORTHERN LATITUDES WHERE A WELL-DEFINED, POSITIVELY-TILTED,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO AMPLIFY
FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS IT DIGS INTO THE RUST
BELT, WHILE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS
ECLIPSE THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A
TROUGH WAS ANCHORED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MESCALERO ESCARPMENT WHICH
HAS MAINTAINED THE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. FARTHER NORTH, THE PRIMARY,
SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING JET STREAKS WILL MAINTAIN
CYCLOGENESIS OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW, WHICH HAS BEEN OBJECTIVELY
ANALYZED AT 1020 MB IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED BETWEEN LAA-LHX. THIS LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO
THE TX PH BY THE LATE-MORNING HOURS, WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
TRANSITIONS INTO A MESO-BETA-SCALE COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH POST-FROPA, WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING THE CWA PRIOR TO SUNSET. VERTICAL MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW VIA THE PERSISTENT ADVECTION OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AND THE DEPTH OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM TO ALIGN WITH
THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE, BUT WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE
WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE A FEW CIRRUS STREAKS
ADVECTING OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY AS DIABATIC COOLING ACCELERATES THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT (ALBEIT
WEAKENING). LOW TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED FROM THE NBM AS WELL
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF
THE CAPROCK WHILE REMAINING IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
AS THE 1030 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL IN THE 50S
FOLLOWING THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FROPA WILL PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE CONUS AS SLIGHT RIDGING FORMS TO THE WEST BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE 60S FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL GIVE WAY TO
LEE CYCLOGENESIS SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST, A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIGHTLY COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS COULD REACH THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY. BY MID NEXT WEEK MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUT SO FAR THE
TRENDS FOR A DRY AND MILD FORECAST REMAINS BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51
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