981
FXUS64 KLUB 192013
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
213 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- SEVERAL WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE FA AS OF 2 PM WITH
ONLY OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEING THE ONES WITHOUT A FROPA. THESE
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE FROPA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS HIGHLY MODIFIED AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER, WE SHOULD STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA WITH TEMPS ON THE CAPROCK DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY TOMORROW MORNING. A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, HOWEVER,
IF WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE EVERY FEW DAY TREND OF COLD FRONTS CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING HALFWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A LEE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LOW END BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MONDAY,
THE LEE LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM QUITE NICELY ACROSS THE AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A STRONGER NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HELP
TO REINFORCE THE "COOLER" AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. CONTINUED NORTHERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S, WHICH STILL REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES. QUICK RIDGING WILL PASS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST BY MIDWEEK. HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOW
END BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE
PATTERN ALOFT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OPENS THE DOOR
FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AT THIS TIME, BUT THE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...51
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