571
FXUS64 KLUB 200900
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A COLD FRONT HAS NOW COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY
LOWS, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND
POSSIBLE TEENS IN THE MULESHOE AREA. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START
WORKING ITS WAY IN. HOWEVER, THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
50S. IF THE WINDS SWITCH SOONER, IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A HIGH-FREQUENCY, PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THIS
ACTIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
AN INTENSE, NORTHERN PACIFIC JET STREAM EXTENSION THAT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, POSITIONING THE CWA IN THE INFLECTION
POINT OF THE RESPECTIVE RIDGE AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN STATES. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE PERSISTENT ADVECTION OF NVA/CONFLUENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN SHUNT
VERTICAL MIXING HEIGHTS. THE STRONG WARM NOSE THROUGH 700 MB WILL
PREVENT WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM COMING TO FRUITION. FURTHERMORE, A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF THE EDGE OF
THE MESCALERO ESCARPMENT ON SATURDAY, BUT IT SHOULD LOSE ITS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH THE
RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK, LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH SEGUEING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALREADY BE CALM, AND CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING WERE MANUALLY LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS (E.G., MULESHOE VICINITY) AS THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING ARE MAXIMIZED BENEATH A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY.
A PERSISTENCE FORECASTING TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED FOR SUNDAY,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE
TROUGHING SHARPENS FROM AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AS
RENEWED CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, AND THE
APPROACH OF AN INCOMING PV ANOMALY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS MORE-INTENSE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WEAK FRONTOGENESIS, WITH YET ANOTHER
MESO-ALPHA-SCALE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. (THIS FRONT IS NOT THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.) THEREFORE, CAA IN WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK,
THOUGH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES IS
FORECAST ON MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR UPSTREAM OF THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE ZONAL EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
INTENSIFIES, POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 200 KT AT 300 MB. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A BELT OF WAVY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S.,
ACCOMPANIED BY TWO WELL-DEFINED PV STREAMERS. THE POSITION OF THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH(S) AND RELATED VORTICITY ANOMALIES WILL GOVERN
WHETHER OR NOT RAIN SHOWERS AFFECT THE CWA ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
FOR NOW, THE THINKING CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST BASED
ON THE POSITION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH (I.E., DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA) WITH THE BULK OF THE MOIST ASCENT
ADVECTING TO THE EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN.
THE NBM HAS INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THE DAY AFTER
CHRISTMAS. THESE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
FOR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT
EJECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE SUITES WITH THE AMPLITUDE
AND POSITION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE
WHETHER OR NOT THE CWA IS DRY-SLOTTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM OTHERWISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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