139
FXUS64 KLUB 210440
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1040 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
THERE IS NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD, BENIGN
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SEND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. SO,
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EAST BY END OF DAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT WILL
RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LINE WITH NBM AND MOS ADJUSTED
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS, E.G., MULESHOE AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL END UP
WARMER THAN TODAY DESPITE THE BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE WITH THE REPLACING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AGAIN, NBM AND MOS LOOK FINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPPER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
AMPLIFY AND TRANSITION TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HELP COOL TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S/UPPER 60S MONDAY,
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ONE OF MANY IN
A SERIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE
CHRISTMAS EVE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT VERY LIGHT PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. AT BEST
THIS APPEARS TO BE LIGHT SPRINKLES, BUT THE CURRENT TREND SUGGESTS
IT IS MOST LIKELY POST FRONTAL STRATUS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THAT WILL
TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE FA CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF, HAVE GREATLY BACKED OFF WITH PRECIP
CHANCES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS PATTERN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A PACIFIC FRONT INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30
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