724
FXUS64 KLUB 220437
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1037 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR QUICK-HITTING RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, WITH
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A
MINOR RIPPLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT FLOW FROM EL PASO TO DEL RIO
WITH NO EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE MORE VARIABLE
NATURE OF DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO COLORADO. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE INTO A RANGE FROM 10-20 MPH MID-MORNING SUNDAY AND SHOULD
BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRATUS, ALTHOUGH THAT SCENARIO
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ALL TOLD, ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM
PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH BOTH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NBM AND
MOS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERHEAD OF THE FA MONDAY, AS A A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION, BECOMING MORE DEFINED AND
MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE, THE LEE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, ADVANCING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE DAYTIME
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ACROSS THE FA WITH
NORTHERN COUNTIES SEEING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WHILE TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUITE
NICELY INTO THE MID 60S AND LOWER 70S. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
A DECENT STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING MONDAY AND KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, AREAS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAY
SEE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THANKS TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND H8
LEVEL. THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH DIGS INTO THE
REGION. THIS COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING BREEZY AS A LEE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
AND DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUBTLY WARM-UP CHRISTMAS DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH THE "DRIER" TREND REGARDING
THURSDAY, KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
THE TX/OH PANHANDLES. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOIST RETURN FLOW WE SEE
AND HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES WILL BE THE BEST INDICATOR ON POP
POTENTIAL REGARDING THURSDAY. THE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE FOR AREAS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE A SLIGHT (15%-20%) CHANCE OF POPS. WE WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THANKS TO A PACIFIC
FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SADLY, THE AIRMASS WILL
QUICKLY RECOVER BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AIDING IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FA, WITH THE FORECAST REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
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